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Tworzenie stron wwwThere's an article in Fortune about the surge in homebuilders' stocks. Bill Miller may be right with his 1991 analogy -- but our money is on the 2001 analogy instead (we've recently shorted the ITB -- the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF). That year, the previous biggest bubble in history (tech/internet) was in the midst of bursting and the Nasdaq had fallen from 5,028 to half that. Many investors were piling in, thinking that after a 50% decline, tech stocks had bottomed -- but they hadn't, falling an additional 50+%. Enormous bubbles don't burst cleanly, with prices returning to trend line. A study by GMO showed that in every bubble in history, going back to tulib bulbs, the bottom was reached far below trend line. Given that home prices are still way above trend line and that, we're only seeing the tip of the foreclosure tidal wave today. It's hard to see how we're near a bottom in terms of the fundamentals or the stocks (barring a huge government bailout). Excerpt from the Fortune article: The homebuilders ETF is up 29% off its early January lows, while components Toll Brothers (TOL), Lennar (LEN, Fortune 500) and Hovnanian (HOV) are up 40%, 52% and 96%. So after two and a half years of steep drops, have the homebuilding stocks finally seen a bottom? Some investors believe they may have - and that the recent bounce foretells sunnier days for an economy that has been besieged in recent months by recession talk. "What took us into this malaise will be what takes us out," Bill Miller, portfolio manager for the Legg Mason Value Trust, wrote this week in a letter to the fund's shareholders. "Housing stocks peaked in the summer of 2005 and were the first group to start down. Now housing stocks are one of the few areas in the market that are up for the year." Miller, whose fund lagged behind the S&P 500 by some 20 percentage points over the past two years after a 15-year run of beating the index, sees a possible replay of the early 1990s recession. Back then, a brief, mild contraction followed a housing boom and a banking industry crisis - the failure of the savings and loans. Many stocks tied to the financial sector fell to deeply depressed levels in that episode, and investors who bought those stocks near their lows raked in huge gains when the economy recovered. Housing stocks "were among the best performing groups in 1991," Miller wrote, "and could repeat that this year." 1. Indian 'spy' gets month reprieve data: 19.03.08 President Musharraf of Pakistan grants a one-month stay of execution to a convicted Indian spy. 2. Bafta TV awards nominations 2008 data: 19.03.08 The full awards nomination list 3. Robots fly into Antarctic skies data: 19.03.08 A pair of lightweight, robotic planes have made the first unmanned flights over Antarctica's icy expanses. 4. Cristiano Ronaldo in bullfight ad controversy data: 19.03.08 Manchester United midfielder Cristiano Ronaldo has risked the ire of animal-rights groups by portraying a bullfighter in an advert. 5. The meaning of assurances given to Israel by European leaders data: 27.03.08 There is a greater willingness on the part of Europe's leaders - you can probably count in Gordon Brown - to state their backing for Israel at a time of a gathering threats. 6. Kosovo adopts a new constitution data: 10.04.08 Kosovo adopts a new constitution, to come into force in June after an expected UN handover of powers. 7. Bosnia police arrest 5 terrorism suspects in raid data: 27.03.08 During the raid on the suspects' homes in Sarajevo and Bugojno, the police seized anti-tank mines, laser sights, maps and manuals describing how to build bombs, officials said Friday. Polecane: Builders London, property services, decorators london, property Maintenance, 8. City: Pools firm Sportech set for punt with horses data: 19.03.08 Football pools firm Sportech is ready to gamble its future on the Tote. 9. Can the Group of 7 fix the system itself? data: 10.04.08 When the Group of 7 reveals its response to the global financial markets crisis on Friday, one question they will find hard to answer is: Can you fix the system itself? History suggests not. 10. Investigations: Car scam back on the road data: 07.04.08 Does a conman ever change his spots? We only ask because just as George Constanti (below) has one dodgy company shut down by the courts he's busy running a new one. 11. Arctic losing long-term ice cover data: 19.03.08 Despite colder conditions, the Arctic is losing a lot of its old, stable ice, according to satellite data. 12. Credit crisis forces a German lender to close data: 10.04.08 Weserbank's chief executive blamed market turmoil for the demise of the bank, the first European banking fatality of the global financial crunch. 13. April snow worst for two decades data: 07.04.08 Britain saw its worst April snowfall for nearly 20 years yesterday as winter returned. 14. UK fertility treatment 'among the least safe in Europe' data: 07.04.08 The UK has one of the worst safety records for fertility treatment in Europe, new figures show. 15. MySpace highlights social networking's struggles data: 07.04.08 MySpace's struggle to meet advertising targets reflects industry-wide difficulties in turning immense social networking traffic into money â but also the problems of predicting cashflows 16. Su last year data: 10.04.08 Sudoku has furrowed the brow of many a commuter, but will its popularity be usurped by new puzzle kenken? 17. Fiona: Left to suffer by a drug scandal data: 19.03.08 If I went to the doctor and said I had a sore throat, he wouldn't hesitate in prescribing antibiotics, whether I needed them or not. If I had early-onset Alzheimer's however, chances are I'd be sent packing. 18. Belgium gets new government, but how long will it last? data: 27.03.08 After a nine-month political crisis that prompted speculation that the country might split, Yves Leterme of the Flemish Christian Democrats was sworn in Thursday as prime minister. But many voters believe the new government will be too weak to last. 19. Gamezone: Review: God of War: Chains of Olympus data: 07.04.08 PSP, £29.99-£49.99 5/5 20. Somali UN peace force considered data: 19.03.08 The UN chief will recommend sending peacekeepers to Somalia if certain conditions are met, he says. 21. Trial of couple accused of killing 7 young women to begin in France data: 27.03.08 Michel Fourniret, allegedly one of France's most deadly serial killers, goes on trial this week with his wife, who is accused of helping her husband lure in his prey. 22. Experts warn Alex Salmond over tax data: 10.04.08 A Westminster ruling that Alex Salmond does not have the authority to introduce a local income tax has "real substance", some of Scotland's most senior constitutional and financial experts have said. 23. Big-is-better theory loses appeal data: 07.04.08 Battle lines are forming in banking that pit bigger-is-better theorists against breakup advocates. 24. Cleaning 'improves mental health' data: 10.04.08 Working up a sweat while performing household chores could benefit your mental health, a study suggests. 25. Man charged over Jamaica murder data: 07.04.08 A handyman is charged with the murder of a 61-year-old British woman on an extended holiday in Jamaica. 26. Delia Smith's recipes 'have too much salt' data: 07.04.08 A number of Delia Smith's recipes in her How to Cheat at Cooking series contain more salt than the recommended daily intake, food campaigners warn today. 27. Breeder plans to clone 'genius' fighting bull data: 27.03.08 The Spanish breeder Victoriano del Rio plans to turn to ViaGen, a cloning and genomics company, to clone his prize bull Alcalde. Animal rights activists object to the project. 28. New U.S. flight delays loom as safety reviews expand data: 10.04.08 Chaos at airports in the United States could go on for weeks as the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and the airlines expand their scrutiny of passenger planes. 29. Duma wants Putin to back Georgian separatists data: 27.03.08 Parliament urged the Kremlin to consider recognizing the independence of two separatist regions in Georgia, stepping up Moscow's campaign to keep the former Soviet republic out of NATO. 30. Serbia's neighbours accept Kosovo data: 19.03.08 Three of Serbia's neighbours - Bulgaria, Croatia and Hungary - have announced they will recognise Kosovo. --- --- --- -x- |