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Tworzenie stron wwwThere's an article in Fortune about the surge in homebuilders' stocks. Bill Miller may be right with his 1991 analogy -- but our money is on the 2001 analogy instead (we've recently shorted the ITB -- the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF). That year, the previous biggest bubble in history (tech/internet) was in the midst of bursting and the Nasdaq had fallen from 5,028 to half that. Many investors were piling in, thinking that after a 50% decline, tech stocks had bottomed -- but they hadn't, falling an additional 50+%. Enormous bubbles don't burst cleanly, with prices returning to trend line. A study by GMO showed that in every bubble in history, going back to tulib bulbs, the bottom was reached far below trend line. Given that home prices are still way above trend line and that, we're only seeing the tip of the foreclosure tidal wave today. It's hard to see how we're near a bottom in terms of the fundamentals or the stocks (barring a huge government bailout). Excerpt from the Fortune article: The homebuilders ETF is up 29% off its early January lows, while components Toll Brothers (TOL), Lennar (LEN, Fortune 500) and Hovnanian (HOV) are up 40%, 52% and 96%. So after two and a half years of steep drops, have the homebuilding stocks finally seen a bottom? Some investors believe they may have - and that the recent bounce foretells sunnier days for an economy that has been besieged in recent months by recession talk. "What took us into this malaise will be what takes us out," Bill Miller, portfolio manager for the Legg Mason Value Trust, wrote this week in a letter to the fund's shareholders. "Housing stocks peaked in the summer of 2005 and were the first group to start down. Now housing stocks are one of the few areas in the market that are up for the year." Miller, whose fund lagged behind the S&P 500 by some 20 percentage points over the past two years after a 15-year run of beating the index, sees a possible replay of the early 1990s recession. Back then, a brief, mild contraction followed a housing boom and a banking industry crisis - the failure of the savings and loans. Many stocks tied to the financial sector fell to deeply depressed levels in that episode, and investors who bought those stocks near their lows raked in huge gains when the economy recovered. Housing stocks "were among the best performing groups in 1991," Miller wrote, "and could repeat that this year." 1. John McCain makes second Shia slip data: 10.04.08 John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate who has based his White House campaign on his foreign policy expertise, has again been caught making a basic error. 2. Europe struggles to accommodate its growing Muslim minority data: 27.03.08 Across Europe, politicians try to be culturally sensitive to Muslim citizens without sacrificing liberal principles. 3. Brian Reade: Elton can't bear it data: 07.04.08 Ben Elton has attacked the BBC for having a politically-correct policy which censors any gags likely to offend organised Islam. 4. Progress in Korea nuclear talks data: 10.04.08 North Korea says a deal is reached with the US over disclosure of its nuclear activities. 5. Beijing pollution 'not a danger' data: 07.04.08 Olympic chief Jacques Rogge claims air pollution in Beijing will not endanger athletes' health at the 2008 Games. 6. U.S. to cut staff at its embassy in Belarus data: 27.03.08 The United States will cut staff levels at its embassy in Minsk by almost half, bowing to demands from Belarus amid worsening relations between the two countries, the Foreign Ministry said Monday. 7. Microsoft warns Yahoo board to act on merger offer data: 07.04.08 Microsoft has warned the board of Yahoo that if a merger agreement is not completed within three weeks, Microsoft would make its offer directly to Yahoo shareholders, probably at a lower price. 8. Study gets to grips with 'easy' cricket catches data: 10.04.08 Scientists believe they have worked out why even the most experienced cricketer cannot always take an apparently easy catch. 9. Romania reconsiders its welcome of biotech corn data: 27.03.08 The country had been one of the most receptive on a continent skeptical of genetically modified crops, but is moving toward a reversal of its stance. 10. Schumacher to help distribute McLaren's spy fine data: 27.03.08 Ferrari's retired world champion Michael Schumacher will help distribute $60 million (30 million pounds) paid by McLaren as punishment for last year's spying controversy, Formula One's governing body said on Wednesday. 11. Clashes in Egypt strike stand-off data: 07.04.08 Egyptian textile workers and police clash after security forces take over their factory to prevent a major strike. 12. Cypriot leaders move forward on reconciliation data: 27.03.08 The leaders of the Greek and Turkish communities of Cyprus agreed Friday to restart peace talks on reunifying the ethnically split island, and to open a crossing in the heart of the divided capital. 13. Slovakia rows over EU treaty data: 07.04.08 Slovakia's ratification of the Lisbon treaty reforming the European Union could be derailed by opponents of government attempts to push through a controversial media... 14. Cleaning 'improves mental health' data: 10.04.08 Working up a sweat while performing household chores could benefit your mental health, a study suggests. 15. Charlton Heston, Oscar-winner, dies aged 84 data: 07.04.08 Charlton Heston, the Oscar-winning screen icon whose conservative views and ardent defence of gun rights later overshadowed his acting, died at his home in Beverly Hills at the weekend. He was 84. 16. Open skies, cheaper fares – at least for now data: 07.04.08 The first phase of the open-skies agreement has added 20 percent more seats across the Atlantic than were available last April, bringing down prices. 17. Dutch court to consider bid to ban anti-Islam movie data: 27.03.08 A Dutch court said Friday it would hear a complaint lodged by Muslim groups seeking to bar the politician Geert Wilders from releasing his film on the Koran. 18. Gritty Dutch war games raise eyebrows in former colony data: 07.04.08 Dutch marines say their training in Suriname is just that, but the military activities still arouse suspicions in the former Dutch colony. 19. Man critical after blaze at hotel data: 19.03.08 A 45-year-old is in hospital and three others feared missing after a fire at a disused hotel. 20. Irish leader quitting amid graft inquiry data: 07.04.08 Denying that he received corrupt payments, Prime Minister Bertie Ahern, one of Europe's longest-serving leaders, who played a central part in bringing peace to Northern Ireland, announced Wednesday that he would resign next month. 21. Hijacked yacht crew 'feared pirate attack' data: 07.04.08 Fears were growing last night for the crew of a luxury yacht hijacked off the African coast, as the British former girlfriend of one crewman revealed that he had been worried about a pirate attack. 22. Two charged over beach head data: 07.04.08 Two men are charged in connection with the death of a Lithuanian woman whose head was found on a beach. 23. Prosecutors quiz Samsung boss data: 07.04.08 The boss of South Korea's Samsung Group is questioned by prosecutors over corruption allegations. 24. Bear Stearns employees sending out résumés in bad market data: 07.04.08 Bear Stearns employees are flooding Wall Street with their résumés as the firm is acquired by rival JPMorgan Chase, but the job market looks bad, investment bankers and recruiters said. 25. Outrage over cartoons still trying for Danes data: 27.03.08 A cartoonist and his editor, still plagued by their decision to print cartoons of Muhammad, stand by their work. 26. Football: Man U relishing Barca tie data: 10.04.08 Manchester United boss Sir Alex Ferguson cannot wait to face Barcelona in the Champions League semi-finals after beating Roma. 27. Mikhail Gorbachev admits he is a Christian data: 19.03.08 Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Communist leader of the Soviet Union, has acknowledged his Christian faith for the first time, paying a surprise visit to pray at the tomb of St Francis of Assisi. 28. 'Healthier hearts' for cat owners data: 19.03.08 Cat owners have a lower risk of a fatal heart attack than feline-spurning counterparts, a study suggests. 29. Mills' evidence 'inaccurate' data: 19.03.08 Heather Mills' evidence in her divorce case with Sir Paul McCartney was "inaccurate", the judge's ruling states. 30. Youth crime 'up by two thirds in 10 years' data: 07.04.08 The number of children and teenagers regularly committing crimes has soared since Labour came to power. |