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Tworzenie stron wwwThere's an article in Fortune about the surge in homebuilders' stocks. Bill Miller may be right with his 1991 analogy -- but our money is on the 2001 analogy instead (we've recently shorted the ITB -- the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF). That year, the previous biggest bubble in history (tech/internet) was in the midst of bursting and the Nasdaq had fallen from 5,028 to half that. Many investors were piling in, thinking that after a 50% decline, tech stocks had bottomed -- but they hadn't, falling an additional 50+%. Enormous bubbles don't burst cleanly, with prices returning to trend line. A study by GMO showed that in every bubble in history, going back to tulib bulbs, the bottom was reached far below trend line. Given that home prices are still way above trend line and that, we're only seeing the tip of the foreclosure tidal wave today. It's hard to see how we're near a bottom in terms of the fundamentals or the stocks (barring a huge government bailout). Excerpt from the Fortune article: The homebuilders ETF is up 29% off its early January lows, while components Toll Brothers (TOL), Lennar (LEN, Fortune 500) and Hovnanian (HOV) are up 40%, 52% and 96%. So after two and a half years of steep drops, have the homebuilding stocks finally seen a bottom? Some investors believe they may have - and that the recent bounce foretells sunnier days for an economy that has been besieged in recent months by recession talk. "What took us into this malaise will be what takes us out," Bill Miller, portfolio manager for the Legg Mason Value Trust, wrote this week in a letter to the fund's shareholders. "Housing stocks peaked in the summer of 2005 and were the first group to start down. Now housing stocks are one of the few areas in the market that are up for the year." Miller, whose fund lagged behind the S&P 500 by some 20 percentage points over the past two years after a 15-year run of beating the index, sees a possible replay of the early 1990s recession. Back then, a brief, mild contraction followed a housing boom and a banking industry crisis - the failure of the savings and loans. Many stocks tied to the financial sector fell to deeply depressed levels in that episode, and investors who bought those stocks near their lows raked in huge gains when the economy recovered. Housing stocks "were among the best performing groups in 1991," Miller wrote, "and could repeat that this year." 1. Solar System's 'look-alike' found data: 07.04.08 Astronomers say they have discovered a planetary system orbiting a distant star which looks much like our own. 2. Berlin denies Libya training role data: 07.04.08 Germany denies media reports of official involvement in an alleged scheme to train Libyan anti-terror police. 3. Fado, the Portuguese soul music data: 27.03.08 On key or off, Fado's haunting melodies are being transformed, yet they manage to catch the tone of a nation 4. Nicholas Soames in court over quad bike stunt data: 19.03.08 Nicholas Soames, the veteran Tory MP, is to appear in court over footage allegedly showing him riding a quad bike on a public road with a child perched behind him. 5. Successful Test cricketers live for longer data: 10.04.08 Cricketers who play more Test matches can expect to enjoy a longer innings in life, according to research. 6. Features: Sea for yourself data: 07.04.08 My husband wants us to go on a cruise this year but I have never been on one before and I'm not sure if I'll like it. 7. Cityscape: Helping newcomers navigate the real estate maze of Istanbul data: 27.03.08 A modern businesswoman finds new residents a place to live in an ancient city beset by illegal construction and often untraceable ownership documents. Polecane: Builders London, property services, decorators london, property Maintenance, 8. Fiona: Tragedy of Todd data: 19.03.08 Police chief Mike Todd was the best cop Greater Manchester had known, according to tributes on the force's website. Only he didn't believe it. 9. Lewis on Heikki data: 27.03.08 10. Pro-Tibet protesters disrupt Olympic flame lighting data: 27.03.08 Activists angered by the Chinese crackdown in Tibet disrupted the ceremony Monday in Greece, unfurling a banner and calling for a boycott of the Beijing Summer Games. 11. Germany is 'filled with shame' over Nazi holocaust, Angela Merkel tells Israel data: 19.03.08 The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, has told Israel that her nation is "filled with shame" over the Nazi holocaust and that she bows before its victims. 12. Credit crisis fallout continues data: 10.04.08 The latest report from the IMF on the global credit crisis is the main news in the Daily Telegraph. 13. Sue Carroll: Suzanne Shaw showed him data: 19.03.08 Three years ago, having just given birth to his child, Suzanne Shaw was forced to watch lover Darren Day walk out, saying: "I don't do family." 14. 'Some progress' in Russia-US ties data: 07.04.08 George Bush and Vladimir Putin sign a basic agreement on bilateral ties, without a breakthrough on differences. 15. Techs buck the trend on debt data: 07.04.08 A downturn in the US economy and turmoil in the debt markets has done little to slow a sea-change in the balance sheets of some of the technology industry's leading lights 16. Heather Mills and Paul McCartney divorce: A divorce lawyer's opinion data: 19.03.08 Mr Justice Bennett's judgment will make hard reading for Miss Mills. She was described as a "less than impressive witness" while her account of her contributions to the marriage was, on one occasion, depicted as "devoid of reality". 17. Owning a cat 'cuts stroke risk by third' data: 19.03.08 Owning a cat can reduce the risk of heart attacks and strokes by more than a third, researchers have found. 18. 'Seven dead' in Karachi violence data: 10.04.08 At least seven people are killed and a dozen wounded after rival groups of lawyers clash in Pakistan, police say. 19. Bertelsmann keeps deal powder dry data: 19.03.08 The German group has revealed that writedowns and one-off charges had led it to miss targets for increasing profits and reducing debt as net income plunged in 2007 to €405m 20. Outrage over cartoons still trying for Danes data: 27.03.08 A cartoonist and his editor, still plagued by their decision to print cartoons of Muhammad, stand by their work. 21. Richard Hammond: Please let me go home data: 07.04.08 As the nation was going potty over the calamitous launch of Heathrow's Terminal 5, I was stuck in Marrakech airport trying to get back to Gatwick after last week's brief family hols. 22. Latest Pictures: Latest news pictures, April 7-12 data: 10.04.08 News images from around the world. 23. F1: Massa wins in Bahrain data: 07.04.08 Ferrari's Felipe Massa dominates the Bahrain Grand Prix as Lewis Hamilton fails to score and loses the championship lead. 24. Leading figures mark NI Agreement data: 10.04.08 Some of those who helped negotiate the Good Friday Agreement are in Belfast to mark its 10th anniversary. 25. Italy vows to keep Alitalia aloft after bidder pulls out data: 07.04.08 The airline said it would take the next several days to study its financial options before deciding on Tuesday whether to continue its operations. 26. Bluebirds win FA Cup final place data: 07.04.08 Thousands of Cardiff City fans celebrate their side going through to the FA Cup final next month. 27. Bear Stearns employees sending out rĂ©sumĂ©s in bad market data: 07.04.08 Bear Stearns employees are flooding Wall Street with their rĂ©sumĂ©s as the firm is acquired by rival JPMorgan Chase, but the job market looks bad, investment bankers and recruiters said. 28. The need to share a dark secret data: 07.04.08 Felix Dennis has retracted his "confession" but why do people suddenly own up to murder years later? 29. Treasury faces 'major challenge' data: 07.04.08 The Treasury faces a major challenge in meeting its own targets amid continuing market turmoil, a committee warns. 30. Blast kills Sri Lankan minister data: 07.04.08 Sri Lankan Highways Minister Jeyaraj Fernandopulle is among 14 people killed in a suicide bombing, officials say. projektowanie stron www renovation to enhance , cottage design is pretty open. key themes to incorporate are cozy, and quaint, with emphasis on country charm. property services property services so regardless if your cottage home is lived in year-round, or a summer cottage, cozy cottage getaway , praca Londyn keep cottage style open and friendly. mix and mingle old with the new to tell a story, inviting and warm. , ogłoszenia londyn, , projektowanie stron internetowych -x- |